In an uncertain geopolitical environment, Swedish trade declined marginally during 2024–2025. A closer look at the figures reveals a shift in trade flows, with exports to the United States declining while trade with Europe has increased.
A new analysis by Dun & Bradstreet, based on trade data for 2024 and 2025, shows that Swedish companies have adjusted their trade flows in response to U.S. tariffs and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Exports to the U.S. fell by 9.2 percent, from 186.5 billion Swedish kronor to 169.4 billion Swedish kronor. At the same time, exports to neighboring European markets, such as Denmark and Poland, increased. Total export volumes rose slightly during the same period (+0.8 %), suggesting that Swedish companies maintained their volumes to some extent, despite changes in demand across various markets.
– This is a clear shift in trade patterns. Exports to the U.S. declined, while exports to other markets increased—which suggests that Swedish companies, to some extent, maintained their volumes but managed to redirect their sales. Europe became a natural alternative as uncertainty grew, but this also means that more companies are now competing in the same markets, which in the long run could put pressure on margins,” says Theodora Papadimitropoulou, an expert on global supply chains at Dun & Bradstreet.
Companies increased their imports—and then hit the brakes
In contrast to exports, imports from the U.S. rose sharply (+20.3 %). At the same time, shipment data show that imports rose temporarily at the beginning of the year, only to decline gradually thereafter, suggesting that Swedish companies began shifting to other suppliers.
– The data shows that many companies took proactive measures by bringing forward their purchases from the U.S. and building up inventory before tariffs and uncertainty took effect. After the initial uptick, the share of imports from the U.S. declined, suggesting that companies gradually began looking for alternative suppliers. This points to a shift from short-term risk management to a more long-term adjustment of supply chains, says Theodora Papadimitropoulou.
Exports shifted toward high-value goods
This shift is also evident at the product level, where exports grew in high-value and specialized segments—such as precious metals (+49.7 %), aviation components (+38.5 %), and copper products (+11.5 %). At the same time, exports of more cyclical industrial goods declined, such as vehicles (−10.3 %), mineral fuels (−15.6 %), and iron, steel, and paper (approximately −7–8 %).
– Swedish companies found themselves in a double bind. They remained dependent on U.S. inputs, particularly in the field of advanced technology, while at the same time reducing their sales to the United States. This illustrates how difficult it is to quickly replace certain supply chains. At the same time, we’re seeing companies adjust what they sell and where they sell it, shifting toward higher-value products and more stable markets. The companies that will succeed going forward are those that manage to both reduce their risk and maintain their flexibility.
