Geopolitical tensions, the lingering effects of the pandemic, and economic volatility mean that supply chain issues are more important than ever. For Pontus Sellberg, an analyst at Danske Bank, this means that uncertainty has become the new normal. For Sonat CEO Mattias Norin, the conclusion is just as clear: companies must build a stronger capacity to design, manage, and develop their supply chains—and that’s where an independent 4PL provider plays a crucial role.
“We’ve experienced many years of recurring disruptions. The pandemic exposed our vulnerabilities, then came inflation, and now we’re seeing the effects of geopolitical conflicts. All in all, this means that companies must start thinking in terms of scenarios and prepare for a more complex world,” says Pontus Sellberg.
Logistics has long been a function that is often taken for granted. But the turbulence of recent years has changed that picture. As geopolitical instability and increased protectionism have taken hold, the need for robust and flexible solutions has grown ever greater.
“It has become painfully clear to both businesses and individuals that if goods don’t arrive, many parts of society come to a standstill,” says Mattias Norin.
Companies are under pressure to become faster and more flexible
For goods owners, this new reality means increased demands to both anticipate and mitigate disruptions, as well as to act quickly when disruptions occur. Redesigning supply chains, finding new transportation routes, or establishing parallel supply structures is becoming increasingly common.
“Companies must be able to restructure their supply chains more quickly, secure inventory, and manage more complex customs and transportation procedures. This places new demands on both expertise and system support,” Mattias notes.
There is also a clear shift in how companies think about contingency planning. Maintaining high inventory levels was previously viewed as inefficient, but in today’s uncertain world, it can be a necessary safeguard to keep production running.
4PL – The Independent Logistics Integrator
As demands increase, the question of who is best suited to handle this complexity becomes central. Here, Mattias argues that a 4PL provider plays a unique role. Unlike a 3PL, which owns warehouses, vehicles, and other physical infrastructure, a 4PL is an independent integrator that optimizes the entire operation from a strategic perspective.
“We don’t own any trucks or warehouses. Our mission is to stand by the customer, design the overall solution, and ensure that all parties involved deliver in a cost-effective and competitive manner.” “It’s more like being a strategic partner who steers, sets requirements, and optimizes—not an operational contractor,” he says.
In practice, this means that a 4PL acts as a control tower and an integrator that coordinates and monitors multiple providers, thereby ensuring efficient and sustainable delivery flows. By not being tied to its own warehouses or transportation networks, a 4PL can choose the solutions that are most cost-effective and robust for each customer and in every situation. In this role, entirely new opportunities are created to adapt and develop a customer’s supply network over time.
The right skills are key
Digital systems, AI, and advanced tools are essential for creating transparency and control. But technology is of no use without the right skills to use it. Here, Mattias emphasizes that the combination of the right systems and the right skills is the key to success.
“You need experienced people who can analyze, make decisions, and drive improvement. That’s why our clients turn to us—because we’re a partner that both can and dares to take responsibility for the big picture,” says Mattias.
Sweden Is Falling Behind in the AI Race
Digitalization and AI are often cited as the key to managing the logistics flows of the future. But Pontus Sellberg argues that Europe and Sweden are worryingly far behind China and the United States in this regard.
“Sweden is a world leader in innovation, research, and development, but when it comes to AI implementation, we rank only 25th in the world. It’s a paradox, since we’re also among the top five in the world in areas such as industrial robotics,” he says. According to Pontus, the explanation lies in both culture and focus. Major U.S. companies have long driven productivity through AI, while European companies have often been more cautious. For logistics and the supply chain, this means that an entire continent risks falling behind in the race for efficiency, competitiveness, and resilience.
“We need to get much better at using AI in logistics processes. It’s not just about innovation in a lab setting, but about implementing the technology in everyday life,” explains Pontus.
Geopolitics Is Redrawing the Supply Chain Map
Pontus Sellberg points out how logistics are directly affected by geopolitics. Events in the Red Sea have extended lead times by up to two weeks, costs are rising, and risk premiums are being factored into freight rates. At the same time, climate change—including drought in the Panama Canal and reduced traffic in the Suez Canal—has created additional bottlenecks.
Issues such as dual sourcing, regionalization, and scenario planning have become highly topical. Many companies are being forced to consider how “just-in-time” they can actually be, or whether they must incur higher costs to keep more goods in stock. In the longer term, new transport routes are opening up, such as the Northeast Passage and the Indian corridor through the Middle East to Europe, but these are still a few years away. In the meantime, uncertainty remains high, not least in connection with trade policy and tariffs.
– We see how tariffs are being used as a geopolitical tool. The U.S.’s negotiating tactic has often been to first propose extreme levels and then normalize tariffs at 10 to 15 percent. That’s still high, but it’s something companies can handle. The problem is that the uncertainty makes it difficult to plan for investments and capacity,” Pontus notes.
He believes this will be particularly noticeable for Sweden and the Nordic countries. Only 2 percent of Nordic companies’ revenue comes from the domestic market; the rest depends on exports. That is why robust supply chains and flexible logistics solutions are crucial to competitiveness.
Sharply Rising Import Prices
In addition to geopolitical factors and logistical disruptions, Pontus Sellberg also sees a clear increase in costs within the flow of goods itself. The ITPI index, which measures the price buyers pay when goods are imported into Sweden, shows that import prices for durable goods have risen by about 23 percent in recent years; see the figure above.
“This shows that the cost increases in the value chains are substantial. Currency effects account for a large part of this, but that’s only part of the picture. Added to this are increased costs for planning, dual sourcing, and higher inventory levels,” says Pontus.
—
Interview and text by Marika Karlöf
