Globalization remains at a historically high level—despite escalating geopolitical tensions, increased U.S. tariffs, and significant uncertainty surrounding the future of trade policy. This is one of the key findings of the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, published by DHL and conducted by New York University’s Stern School of Business since 2011.
Despite geopolitical tensions and increased uncertainty, trade and investment relations between traditional partner countries have largely been maintained. A major and notable exception to this is the decline in trade between the world’s two largest economies. Here, the report shows that trade between the U.S. and China fell to 2.0 percent of world trade, down from 2.7 percent in 2024. The ties between the world’s two largest economies thus continue to weaken. However, these ties are surprisingly small from a global perspective, as trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.6 percent of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to 2.7 percent in 2024 and further to just 2.0 percent last year. The report measures globalization on a scale from zero to 100 percent—where 0 = no cross-border flows and 100 = borders and distances do not matter. In 2025, globalisation is projected to stand at 25 percent, matching the record level set in 2022. At the same time, this level illustrates just how far the world still is from being fully globalised.
– The politics surrounding globalization are far more volatile than the actual flows between countries. Trade patterns changed more in 2025 than in a typical year, but less than during other disruptions, such as the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Sound decisions require a realistic view of how much global business relationships actually change. The risks are real, but so is the resilience of globalization, says Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern.
Sweden in twelfth place
Singapore is ranked as the world’s most globalized country, followed by Luxembourg and the Netherlands, with Sweden in twelfth place. Europe is the world’s most globalized region, followed by North America and the Middle East & North Africa. The United Kingdom has the most geographically dispersed global flows. Average trade growth through 2029 is expected to be in line with that of the past decade, according to the report.
The AI boom and the race to raise tariffs drove trade in 2025
Global trade grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017, with the exception of the most volatile period of the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. importers increased their imports early in the year to counter tariff hikes. Later, U.S. imports fell to levels below those of previous years. Despite this, global trade remained strong due to increased Chinese export volumes to markets outside the U.S. Trade in AI-related goods exploded as countries and companies competed to build AI infrastructure. According to the WTO, AI-related products accounted for 42 percent of the growth in merchandise trade during the first three quarters of 2025
Some slowdown in 2026
Looking ahead, the increased U.S. tariffs are expected to slow trade growth somewhat in 2026, but not halt it. Global merchandise trade is expected to grow by an average of 2.6 percent per year through 2029, which is in line with the previous decade. One key reason for this is that the majority of world trade does not involve the U.S. In 2025, 13 percent of the world’s imports went to the U.S., and 9 percent of exports came from there.
The DHL Global Connectedness Report has been published since 2011 and provides reliable insights into globalization by analyzing 14 different types of international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. The 2026 edition is based on more than 9 million data points. It ranks the degree of global connectedness in 180 countries, which together account for 99.6% of the world’s gross domestic product and 99.0% of the world’s population. For each of these countries, there is a full-page profile summarizing its globalization patterns. The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
