There are numerous research firms that provide forecasts for future technology investments in automation. What they all have in common is that they predict a very strong increase in logistics automation in general and in so-called Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR) in particular—a market that is projected to grow by 16–35 percent through 2030*.
”If we go back to the 1990s and the early 2000s, there was a lot of hype surrounding what were then called AGVs, but the enthusiasm quickly faded because the technology wasn’t sufficiently developed. The solutions were inflexible and virtually impossible to modify once they were installed, says Gregor Schubert-Lebernegg, Product and Sales Manager at the Austrian automation company Knapp AG, which has been developing its own Autonomous Mobile Robots—also known as ”next-generation AGVs”—for more than ten years.
Flexibility and scalability
Around 2010, various technologies began to be developed that gave autonomous robots greater intelligence, flexibility, safety, and scalability. This led to increased investment in AMR technology by the automation industry and the entry of a number of new players into the industry.
“Over the past 4–5 years, demand has increased significantly as a result of COVID-19, the rise of e-commerce, a shortage of warehouse staff, and a greater need for flexibility and scalability,” notes Gregor, emphasizing that the flexible autonomous robots primarily handle simpler, low-value-added tasks, allowing warehouse staff to focus on more value-added work.
– These days, the demand for warehouse staff exceeds the supply, which means that warehouse staff view AMRs solely as a ”pain reliever”—a way to lighten their workload and a positive addition to their own work.
Many uses
Until 2010, Knapp served as an integrator of AGV systems from other manufacturers. The company then changed its strategy, and today it offers a broad portfolio of various autonomous robots for a wide range of applications.
“We have AMRs for various types of transport of both boxes and pallets—so-called ‘Open Shuttles’—and we have robots that can be used in a complete warehouse management system, known as the ‘Open Shuttle Store,’” says Peter Henriksson, Senior Solution Engineer at Knapp Nordics.
He explains that the greatest interest in AMRs here in the Nordic region comes from the manufacturing industry, particularly the automotive sector. One example is Meritor in Lindesberg—a leading supplier of drivetrain and braking solutions to the automotive industry —which recently invested in a complete warehouse solution from Knapp, including 15 AMRs that move 2,400 pallets daily between 200 different destinations.
– In the manufacturing industry, robotization is nothing new, and AMRs often provide significant added value there because they are safe, quiet, and agile. Beyond the manufacturing industry, there is also strong demand for AMRs in retail and e-commerce, as well as from small and medium-sized startups looking for a solution that offers maximum flexibility, says Peter.
Intelligence is the be-all and end-all
Knapp has placed a strong emphasis on developing the intelligence of his robots—that is, on smart software that manages the operational aspects of the robots’ autonomous navigation and learning, as well as on more sophisticated cameras and sensors. This is vital because AMRs are generally used for tasks in which they must collaborate with both people and other vehicles in a safe, predictable, and seamless manner.
– There are dozens of startups that have launched AMRs based on open-source software. Most have disappeared fairly quickly, because the challenge lies in developing software that provides the robots with the stability and safety they need, and in getting many robots to work together seamlessly. That’s why large fleets of AMRs are still quite rare,” explains Gregor, continuing:
– Our fleet control software currently manages a fleet of 40 robots in a warehouse, and we believe it is capable of controlling up to 150 vehicles, including both our own robots and other automated and manual vehicles. This provides customers with enormous benefits, as it’s much easier to have a single fleet control system rather than multiple systems that risk interfering with one another.
”Favorable total cost”
Today’s autonomous mobile robots thus offer users a high degree of flexibility and scalability, and they can operate in virtually any existing warehouse. However, the purchase price remains a factor that can dampen enthusiasm among some buyers.
“AMRs are still a bit more expensive to purchase than traditional AGVs, but if you include the cost of training, installation, setup, and service, the overall cost becomes much more favorable,” says Gregor, adding that Knapp also trains customers so they can install and service their robots relatively quickly and on their own.
In addition, AI and machine learning are increasingly being used to teach autonomous robots to act as intelligently and productively as possible.
– This is still in its early stages, but we’re already using AI to train our robots to lift and set down pallets, boxes, shelves, and so on. We’re also using AI and machine learning to develop the robots’ long-term ability to perceive various objects and obstacles and understand how to maneuver around them.
Future Technology
One can only speculate on how many tens or hundreds of billions of dollars autonomous robots will generate in five or ten years. What is clear, however, is that the future of AMRs is bright. Gregor and Peter view the robots as a solution for the future that will soon become as commonplace as shuttles and miniload systems are today.
– I am convinced that in five years, AMRs will be used much more widely than they are today and will no longer be viewed as a niche technology. By then, the technology will be just as widespread and commonplace as shuttles and miniload systems are today. I also believe that AMRs will perform a large part of the work that is still carried out by rail systems, much in the same way that the car replaced the train 120 years ago,” predicts Gregor.
Peter nods in agreement and points out that the high level of technological maturity in the Nordic market points to strong regional market demand.
– We have allocated dedicated sales resources solely to market and sell AMRs here in the Nordic region, and I am confident that many companies will choose AMR solutions going forward.
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* See, for example, Interact Analysis (2022), “Autonomous Mobile Robot Market by Type, by Application, by End-User – Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast 2022–2030,” among others.
